Year 2014 is a year of destiny for India. As I write this, spring is
blooming in the gardens of this great nation and the backyard of our modest
homes. We have always hailed the cuckoo as the harbinger of spring. This time,
it is also manifesting as the harbinger of change. As the cuckoo spreads
melody, incidentally the vast sky reverberates with a clarion call. A battle is
round the corner. A battle of ideologies and personalities. A battle of
promises and performance. India is going to the polls to decide its next bhagya
vidhata (destiny writer).
As spring makes way for summer, the heat is on the rise, and so is light. A new sun rises in the horizon of Indian politics. Narendra Modi has deservingly positioned himself as the poster boy of the BJP's electioneering campaign. Armored with a boastful track record of good governance proven over a decade in the province of Gujarat, he is raising his claim for the prime ministerial position in no unclear terms. The Congress on the other hand is leaving no stone unturned to derail Modi's campaign by reminding the electorate of his so-called communal past. Notwithstanding, the Congress itself is struggling to keep itself afloat despite its tainted track record of farfetched corruption, and economic mismanagement over the last decade.
The AAP movement on the other hand, caught the imagination of the nation through the meteoric rise of AAP to power in the Delhi state elections in December. A bunch of revolutionaries managed to successfully translate public support to their anti-corruption movement into votes, to the extent of decimating the Congress in Delhi, and forming a government with the support of the Congress. But the revolutionaries failed to demonstrate administrative acumen. The Government lasted only for 49 days and the tenure was marked with distasteful episodes, and instances of mercurial decision making. The educated middle class that had come out in large numbers to support AAP in Delhi, are now feeling deserted midway. AAP has seemingly lost out on a golden opportunity to translate their Delhi drama into a recipe for success at Lok Sabha polls.
The regional parties remain opportunistic tidbits for the major parties to leverage against packages. Mamata, Mayawati and Jayalalitha are the three queen bees who are set to play key role in king making post polls. And there are others in that boat like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Navin Patnaik, etc. who are awaiting the right moment to strike a deal that favors their political and personal ambitions. There have even been talks of a possible third front in the wake of the elections as non-BJP-non-Congress proposition. Communism is a failed ideology, but the communists will manage to remain afloat as a non-BJP non-Congress voice substantial enough to be not ignored completely in terms of numbers.
The Congress that claims to be secular ironically has approached the Shahi Imam to secure their traditional vote bank, a section of which is seemingly finding an alternative in AAP. As if approaching a religious leader for religion-based support is not communal politics. It is the same Congress which leaves no opportunity to bash the BJP for communalism for its RSS links. The BJP may benefit from the division of religion-based votes getting split between Congress and AAP, and this is what the Congress fears the most in these difficult times while it already loses much electoral confidence over corruption and economic mismanagement.
Assam remains one the of the major strongholds of the Congress. Congress did extremely well in the 2011 assembly elections (78 of 126 seats). And it is extremely confident to do even better in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls (forecasted 11 out of 14 seats). This is primarily because of the following reasons (1) Assam's demography has been rapidly evolving resulting in a higher proportion of the traditional Congress vote bank - the Muslims (2) the lack of unity among the non-Congress parties, e.g. AGP and BJP have failed to arrive at any pre-poll alliance which could potentially propose a formidable non-Congress alternative (3) emergence of AIUDF and BPF as formidable forces to reckon with, representing specific communities, leaving very less room for consolidating a non-Congress front.
AGP's claim to fame had originated from their popular revolt (1979 - 85) against illegal infiltration from Bangladesh (#students movement #Assam agitation #Assam accord). But such infiltration has continued unabated over last 30 years, of which Congress has ruled for 20 years, and AGP for 10 years. Congress's vote bank politics has been accused as the primary factor behind continued infiltration of Bangladeshis into Assam. This infiltration has been responsible for irriversible changes in the demographic composition of Assam's population that favors Congress's continuation in power through appeasement politics. AGP argues that the IMDT act has been detrimental in flushing out illegal immigrants from Assam during its tenure, and that the Congress is not interested in repealing the IMDT act for vote bank appeasement.
The Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal ) (IMDT) Act was a law enacted in 1983 by the Indira Gandhi government. It laid out the ways to detect illegal immigrants and flush them out of Assam. In favor of “minorities” affected by the Assam Agitation, it was made applicable to the state of Assam only whereas in other states, detection of foreigners is done under The Foreigners Act, 1946. Under the Foreigners Act, where the nationality of a person is not evident, the onus of proving whether a person is a foreigner or not, shall lie upon such person. However, under the IMDT Act, the burden of proving the citizenship or otherwise rested on the accuser and the police, and not the accused. Clearly, Congress’s brainchild IMDT made it almost impossible to deport illegal immigrants from Assam.
In my view, both AGP and Congress have failed to do enough to stop illegal infiltration from Bangladesh in the last thirty years. Congress doesn't want to solve it, and AGP does not have the leadership required to solve it. Needless to mention, should the infiltration continue at the same pace, soon the sons of the soil will become a minority in the next thirty years. Therefore, Assam needs a solution to this problem. It is the number one problem of the state. It is more serious than even corruption or economic backwardness, which are the other problems inflicting Assam. The only viable alternative, in the face of AGP's incompetence and Congress's indifference, is BJP. So for strategic reasons, wisdom lies in giving BJP a chance to try and solve it. They have had a track record that is suggestive enough of their competence and interest in solving this issue of paramount national importance. Infiltration is not a problem limited to Assam, rather it is an issue bearing significance on India's sovereignty and national security. We can be hopeful of BJP that this issue will be adequately addressed.
The question then is what happens to the AGP? According to me, it should either be dissolved completely, or it should take the shape of a formidable local force that works in conjunction with a nationalistic pan-India party like the BJP. Something like what the Shivsena does in Maharasthra. Practically speaking, the latter is a far cry today. Seeing the existing leadership of AGP, it is not something that can be hoped for in the short to medium term. While it will be unfair to completely rule out such a possibility in the long term, for the short term, the only viable alternative is to send them to hibernation. This is possible if the traditional AGP vote bank switches its loyalties in the favor of the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the 2016 assembly elections, and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the next ten years, we hope the AGP can reinvent itself as a formidable local force, and if it succeeds to do so, we could hope for the AGP-BJP working in tandem for the common cause of nationalism.
As spring makes way for summer, the heat is on the rise, and so is light. A new sun rises in the horizon of Indian politics. Narendra Modi has deservingly positioned himself as the poster boy of the BJP's electioneering campaign. Armored with a boastful track record of good governance proven over a decade in the province of Gujarat, he is raising his claim for the prime ministerial position in no unclear terms. The Congress on the other hand is leaving no stone unturned to derail Modi's campaign by reminding the electorate of his so-called communal past. Notwithstanding, the Congress itself is struggling to keep itself afloat despite its tainted track record of farfetched corruption, and economic mismanagement over the last decade.
The AAP movement on the other hand, caught the imagination of the nation through the meteoric rise of AAP to power in the Delhi state elections in December. A bunch of revolutionaries managed to successfully translate public support to their anti-corruption movement into votes, to the extent of decimating the Congress in Delhi, and forming a government with the support of the Congress. But the revolutionaries failed to demonstrate administrative acumen. The Government lasted only for 49 days and the tenure was marked with distasteful episodes, and instances of mercurial decision making. The educated middle class that had come out in large numbers to support AAP in Delhi, are now feeling deserted midway. AAP has seemingly lost out on a golden opportunity to translate their Delhi drama into a recipe for success at Lok Sabha polls.
The regional parties remain opportunistic tidbits for the major parties to leverage against packages. Mamata, Mayawati and Jayalalitha are the three queen bees who are set to play key role in king making post polls. And there are others in that boat like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Navin Patnaik, etc. who are awaiting the right moment to strike a deal that favors their political and personal ambitions. There have even been talks of a possible third front in the wake of the elections as non-BJP-non-Congress proposition. Communism is a failed ideology, but the communists will manage to remain afloat as a non-BJP non-Congress voice substantial enough to be not ignored completely in terms of numbers.
The Congress that claims to be secular ironically has approached the Shahi Imam to secure their traditional vote bank, a section of which is seemingly finding an alternative in AAP. As if approaching a religious leader for religion-based support is not communal politics. It is the same Congress which leaves no opportunity to bash the BJP for communalism for its RSS links. The BJP may benefit from the division of religion-based votes getting split between Congress and AAP, and this is what the Congress fears the most in these difficult times while it already loses much electoral confidence over corruption and economic mismanagement.
Assam remains one the of the major strongholds of the Congress. Congress did extremely well in the 2011 assembly elections (78 of 126 seats). And it is extremely confident to do even better in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls (forecasted 11 out of 14 seats). This is primarily because of the following reasons (1) Assam's demography has been rapidly evolving resulting in a higher proportion of the traditional Congress vote bank - the Muslims (2) the lack of unity among the non-Congress parties, e.g. AGP and BJP have failed to arrive at any pre-poll alliance which could potentially propose a formidable non-Congress alternative (3) emergence of AIUDF and BPF as formidable forces to reckon with, representing specific communities, leaving very less room for consolidating a non-Congress front.
AGP's claim to fame had originated from their popular revolt (1979 - 85) against illegal infiltration from Bangladesh (#students movement #Assam agitation #Assam accord). But such infiltration has continued unabated over last 30 years, of which Congress has ruled for 20 years, and AGP for 10 years. Congress's vote bank politics has been accused as the primary factor behind continued infiltration of Bangladeshis into Assam. This infiltration has been responsible for irriversible changes in the demographic composition of Assam's population that favors Congress's continuation in power through appeasement politics. AGP argues that the IMDT act has been detrimental in flushing out illegal immigrants from Assam during its tenure, and that the Congress is not interested in repealing the IMDT act for vote bank appeasement.
The Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal ) (IMDT) Act was a law enacted in 1983 by the Indira Gandhi government. It laid out the ways to detect illegal immigrants and flush them out of Assam. In favor of “minorities” affected by the Assam Agitation, it was made applicable to the state of Assam only whereas in other states, detection of foreigners is done under The Foreigners Act, 1946. Under the Foreigners Act, where the nationality of a person is not evident, the onus of proving whether a person is a foreigner or not, shall lie upon such person. However, under the IMDT Act, the burden of proving the citizenship or otherwise rested on the accuser and the police, and not the accused. Clearly, Congress’s brainchild IMDT made it almost impossible to deport illegal immigrants from Assam.
In my view, both AGP and Congress have failed to do enough to stop illegal infiltration from Bangladesh in the last thirty years. Congress doesn't want to solve it, and AGP does not have the leadership required to solve it. Needless to mention, should the infiltration continue at the same pace, soon the sons of the soil will become a minority in the next thirty years. Therefore, Assam needs a solution to this problem. It is the number one problem of the state. It is more serious than even corruption or economic backwardness, which are the other problems inflicting Assam. The only viable alternative, in the face of AGP's incompetence and Congress's indifference, is BJP. So for strategic reasons, wisdom lies in giving BJP a chance to try and solve it. They have had a track record that is suggestive enough of their competence and interest in solving this issue of paramount national importance. Infiltration is not a problem limited to Assam, rather it is an issue bearing significance on India's sovereignty and national security. We can be hopeful of BJP that this issue will be adequately addressed.
The question then is what happens to the AGP? According to me, it should either be dissolved completely, or it should take the shape of a formidable local force that works in conjunction with a nationalistic pan-India party like the BJP. Something like what the Shivsena does in Maharasthra. Practically speaking, the latter is a far cry today. Seeing the existing leadership of AGP, it is not something that can be hoped for in the short to medium term. While it will be unfair to completely rule out such a possibility in the long term, for the short term, the only viable alternative is to send them to hibernation. This is possible if the traditional AGP vote bank switches its loyalties in the favor of the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the 2016 assembly elections, and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the next ten years, we hope the AGP can reinvent itself as a formidable local force, and if it succeeds to do so, we could hope for the AGP-BJP working in tandem for the common cause of nationalism.
2 comments:
Bedanta ji I agree with you albiet with a caveat. You are yet to test the BJP. So far they show a ray of hope in solving the infiltration problem but if they form the government with slender majority and have to take the support of pseodo secular parties then their hand would be tied. I feel, the responsibility to forge an electoral alliance for the cause of the sons of the soil, lies more with AGP. So even if they have to sacrifice some electoral benefit, they must come together with BJP for a pre poll alliance for the larger benefit.
Inderbhan ji, you are very right. Nothing is guaranteed even if BJP comes to power. I was expecting a bullet point in their manifesto regarding infiltration, but failed to find one, although I find a focus on NE and being stern with neighbours when required. And you are very right about the responsibility of AGP. I sincerely hope they wake up to this responsibility.
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